Niger River Warns ECOWAS Hawks

 

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and its progenitor, the African Union (AU), ought to tread carefully regarding how they perceive, approach and respond to the events unfolding in Niger. The decision to impose heavy and punitive economic sanctions on Niger, with such astonishing speed and enthusiasm, was unfortunate, to put it mildly. For ECOWAS to declare a war on Niamey, coupled with incessant and cacophonous threats of an imminent and overwhelming invasion, seems beyond comprehension. What exactly do ECOWAS and AU want to achieve in Niger? At what cost? And in whose best interest? 

The official statements issued by ECOWAS, and supported by the AU, mention a number of demands, including: categorical rejection of the method in which power changed hands in Niger, immediate and unconditional release of President Mohamed Bazoum,  restoration of civilian rule, and denunciation of all forms of external intervention. Some of these could be achieved relatively quickly through negotiations. Securing the safety, wellbeing and freedom of the deposed President is a good example. Efforts aimed at restoration of electoral politics and civilian rule are harder but still achievable through diplomatic means. The ECOWAS/AU and military leaders in Niger May disagree on matters pertaining to modalities, terms and timeframes. But failure on either party to negotiate in good faith would amount to a grave and costly miscalculation. 

It is not wise to go to a war to undo or erase the reality on the ground in Niger. The scourge affecting Niger metastasized from a deeper and deadlier malaise afflicting much of Africa, with varying degrees of lethality. War is not an elixir for curing such congenital defect. War is messy, ugly and demonic. And a war to clinically kill the coup is hard to pull off. Niger straddles societal and geopolitical fault lines of immense volatility & complexity. Think about outcomes.

If the coup in Niger is fundamentally a power struggle or ideological contestation within the ranks of the dominant political and military elite in the country, let it be. let them sort it out until they can’t. Hold on until military intervention becomes the last and only option to prevent a total and catastrophic collapse of societal order, outbreak of massive and uncontrollable violence that inflicts unimaginable suffering and mass slaughter on the civilian population. Is Niger in or rapidly approaching this nightmare? A dispassionate, credible and evidence-informed assessment ought to be in order. 

The state system in Africa has not worked for African peoples. Most struggle to perform the most basic functions of a modern state. None of the 55 members of the AU can sustainably feed its people. Some of the biggest and richest countries in the Continent seem frozen in a state of dysfunction and dependency. Sovereignty, power and wealth are not harnessed for the benefit of those to whom they belong: citizens. Member states of ECOWAS vary greatly, but none has evolved and sustained norms, institutions, capabilities and outcomes that could be remotely associated with accountable, rule-based governance. Democracy remains elusive in West Africa and across the Continent. Going to war in Niger in defense of one is, therefore, a peculiar proposition.

ECOWAS hawks need to resist the intoxicating temptations of hubris, posturing and condescension. Look closer for sobering, reflective and substantive alternatives. Heed the anthem and wisdom of the ages. The perennial, unbreakable bondings and the bountiful, shared blessings bequeathed by West Africa’s river of rivers. Behold the core terrain and dominions the mighty Niger River picked and majestically embraced in the course of its awesome journey. Spare a moment in commemoration of the shrines of origins and destiny, of the geographies of desecration, humiliation and betrayal, of the oases of resistance, dignity and solidarity.

Should ECOWAS hawks ignore the council of sages, beware the elemental fury of ancestors and seasons. The season of the heavens is upon us. The timing is not right for a war on Niger and Niamey. The wrath of ancestors might sweep from the coastal areas of the Atlantic to the expansive swathes of the Sahel. The ire of River of Rivers might rip through Tembakounda, Bamako, Timbuktu, Niamey, Baro, Kainji, Lokoja to Onitsha.

Finally, Nigeria shouldn’t and must not be first among the instigators of and apologists for an unnecessary war on Niger. The socio-economic, diplomatic, geopolitical and security fallout and blowbacks spawned by a hasty war on Niger could be devastating for the region and beyond; and could boomerang on Nigeria big time. The demonic tenor of war robs war makers of an opportunity, chance, choice and time to end it, and on terms and conditions favorable to them. Neither the honor and privilege of hosting and leading ECOWAS nor the allure of being or becoming a regional hegemon should compel Nigeria to wage a war of choice on Niger.

Hassan Keynan

Keynanhassan@yahoo.com