Urgent Priorities for Somalia’s New Prime Minister

Mohamed Roble, Newly appointed Prime Minister

The Prime Minister appointed by Somalia’s President yesterday needs and deserves the prayers and goodwill of all Somalis as well as Somalia’s true allies and friends. The circumstances and timing that define and inform his appointment are far from being ideal or opportune.

The country is deeply divided and unstable. The Provisional Constitution (PC) is in disarray and highly contested. The state and its federal institutions are fragile and extremely vulnerable to infiltration, destabilization, and even takeover by internal usurpers and/or external predators. Politics is toxic and in the throes of a cutthroat zero-sum game. Corruption is endemic and rife.  The government – executive, legislative, and judiciary – is under the stewardship of leaders unfettered by law, morals, patriotic duty, tradition, or decency. And the country is afflicted with a corrosive and delirious electoral madness.

This means the Prime Minister designate, Mohamed Hussein Roble, has a small and shrinking political space, a multiplicity of challenges that are formidable, complex and diverse, limited opportunities, scant enabling factors, and, most importantly, very little time. Mr. Roble, therefore, is saddled with enormous obstacles, the biggest and most lethal of which is his own boss.

What, then, could Mr. Roble do in the face of these crushing political, security, governance, electoral, and temporal constraints? In reality not much within the limited time and space available. He could, nevertheless, contribute to efforts aimed at pulling the country back from the abyss. The following are some of the key and most urgent actions he could consider to stabilize the country and prepare the nation for elections as per the agreement concluded between the Federal Government and Federal Member States (FMS) and within the framework of the PC:

Unilateral and illegal term extension: Holding elections every four years is arguably the single most stabilizing factor in Somali politics. Tampering with this constitutional requirement is reckless and dangerous. The new Prime Minister should stay clear of any attempt to even consider a unilateral and unconstitutional term extension. Such attempt is very likely to plunge the country into levels of conflict and chaos that could wipe out all the small incremental gains made during the past two decades.

Limit the dominance and excessive power of diaspora Somalis with dual citizenship in the government: There is not any country in Africa or elsewhere where so much power is concentrated in so few individuals with dual citizenship. The numbers are staggering. Access to the reins of power is quick, easy and unfettered for diaspora Somalis with dual citizenship. They hardly go through appropriate background checks. This has become a source of frustration and resentment among non-diaspora Somalis, who feel exploited and marginalized in their own country. The new PM should make every effort to ensure that Somalis who have only Somalia and Somali passport have fair representation and equitable share in the government.

Restore a measure of sanity in the FGS-FMS relationship: Implementing or even clearly understanding federalism has been immensely difficult across the country. The reasons for this unfortunate state of affairs are many, complex, and immensely diverse. However, during the tenure of President Farmaajo a new, lethal complication has been injected into the embryonic and fragile federal political edifice, especially in relation to Jubbaland and Puntland. Federal powers and resources have been deployed to politically destabilize and economically strangle these FMS for personal and partisan gains. These unfortunate and deeply divisive actions have caused a great deal of damage to the unity and cohesion of the nation. Mr. Roble needs to first prevent further and deeper erosion, followed by a series of confidence building measures to restore a sense of trust in the relationship.

End the reckless politicization of education: Politicizing and recklessly gambling with the education and future of young Somalis is unacceptable and unforgivable. It is very clear that the federal education portfolio is being used and deployed as a blunt political instrument to achieve political objectives. It is shameful to hold secondary school graduates and their parents from the Federal State of Puntland hostage for reasons that have no basis in constitution, law, precedent, or even common sense. The new Prime Minister should put an end to this madness. There is isn’t any profit or meaningful gain from this insane undertaking for anyone except weak and insecure men with power in the service of big and fragile egos.

Curb the runaway state and regulatory capture: There is credible evidence of a well-organized and sophisticated state and regulatory capture scheme involving powerful local groups and influential external actors with vested strategic interests in the country. Aspects of these have been evident in the weeks following the ouster of the previous Prime Minister, Hassan Khaire. Mr. Roble should examine these ominous developments, specially the decisions and promulgations that were approved or implemented between 25 July and 16 September 2020.

These propositions could be a tall order for the new Prime Minister. He may find them difficult to achieve given the limited time at his disposal. More importantly, his boss would most probably try to steer him in a completely different direction, one more in line with the electoral ambitions and partisan calculations of President Farmaajo and Company. Whichever situation he finds himself in, Mr. Roble has a duty to look after the broader interests of the nation.

If for whatever reason the new Prime Minister finds it impossible to defend the Constitution and loyally serve the nation, he must do no more harm.

Hassan Keynan is a former Professor and a senior retired UN official who worked in Africa, Asia and Europe