Farmaajo Will Be Re-elected, But He Won’t Have a Country to Rule

By Hassan Keynan

Prediction and byzantine Somali politics do not easily mix. Nevertheless, one could take a chance to predict that President Farmaajo and Company are likely to return to power. He will NOT come back through fair play. Fair and credible elections do not seem to be top among his priorities. His fortune leader saw the stars aligned for the great leader.

Farmaajo will return through a combination of factors: sheer ambition, will, early planning, effective organization, well-resourced mobilization, uncompromising commitment and singular determination to achieve results by any means necessary. He is arrogant and opportunistic, and stops at nothing to get what he wants. Farmaajo will use violence, intimidation, blackmail, deception and fraud to get him re-elected. He will not even hesitate to commit treason if it delivers for him. Variations of all these elements have been evident from the day Farmaajo was elected President in February 2017.

Farmaajo and Hassan Khaire are unmatched in the relentless, ruthless, merciless, and shameless manner in which they exploit and cynically manipulate the Constitution, national sovereignty, patriotic sentiments, clan politics, state authority and assets, executive powers and privileges, legislative and regulatory bodies and instruments, electoral laws, diplomatic protocols, and bilateral and multilateral relations. State and regulatory capture on a scale unparalleled in the annals of Somali politics.

Qatar and Ethiopia are also two key and heavily consequential factors in Farmaajo’s strategic and electoral calculus. Qatar provides cash, guns, and sophisticated security and surveillance capabilities, coupled with robust political, diplomatic and media support. In fact, there is a growing realization among Western observers and influential African actors that Somalia has become a Qatari Satellite outpost run by top-notch Qatari assets. Ethiopia’s contribution is less sophisticated, medieval and quite crude, but nevertheless effective. It’s deployed in the form of brute military force to intimidate Farmaajo’s opponents, dismantle autonomous federal governance structures, and fraudulently alter the electoral landscape.

Naive opposition. Farmaajo’s ambition and prospects have been enhanced by weak, divided, low-ambition and in some respect naive opposition forces. With the exception of a few, Farmaajo’s political competitors do not seem to understand what they’re up against. They blindly appeal to constitutional, legal and legislative institutions that have been captured, compromised or gutted. They tend to believe that good intentions, common sense, and/or patriotic duty will prevail in contexts and environments dominated by deceit, predatory instincts, and partisan agendas. They insist on adherence to the 4-year constitutional term limit when the incumbent is hell bent on constantly bending the rule, changing the rules of the game, or moving the goal post. And they tend to leave serious matters to chance and luck. Every time Farmaajo and opposition forces meet, the former gets what he wants, i.e. results.  The latter get token compromises, empty promises, or platitudes.

Short-lived victory. Although Farmaajo is likely to return to power, his reign is unlikely to last long or end peacefully. He might be forced to leave power with plenty of regret, diminished fortunes, and ruinous legacy. And most tragically without a country. The end might be eerily similar to the tragic events of early 1991.

Unknown scenario. All political dispensations contain many unknowns that could take the form of unexpected blessings or nasty surprises. Somali politics is particularly and inherently prone to this phenomenon. One unknown is that Farmaajo’s formidable re-election bid might falter and eventually fail spectacularly. And the opposition might pull off a mighty win. A second Unknown is that Farmaajo and Company might win and manage to hold on to power for a full second 4-year term.

The coming six months will be heavy with both huge expectations and corrosive anxieties.

Hassan Keynan is a former Professor and a senior retired UN official who worked in Africa, Asia and Europe

keynanhassan@yahoo.com