Is Ethiopia Squandering Peace and Wealth in the Gas-Rich Ogaden Region?

Ethiopia and ONLF delegation during the signing of the Asmara Joint Declaration

Hassan Keynan

The Somali Regional State (SRS) occupies the second largest territory and has the third largest population in Ethiopia. Its location is very strategic to the security of Ethiopia and the stability of the Horn of Africa Region. Most importantly, the discovery of huge deposits of natural gas in the Ogaden basin constitutes arguably the biggest and richest source of liquidity for Ethiopia's debt-ridden and nearly bankrupt economy. When exporting of the estimated 6.3 trillion cubic feet of natural gas begins in 2021, Ethiopia is expected to earn more than $7 billion yearly.

Yet, peace and stability in this strategic and economically important region remain at best fragile. After twenty-five years of protracted and costly armed insurgency, Ethiopia and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) signed a Joint Declaration in Asmara, Eritrea, on 21 October 2019. The Ethiopian Delegation was led by the former Foreign Minister, HE Workneh Gebeyehu, and included the current Finance Minister, Ahmed Shide, and the President of the Somali Regional State, HE Mustafa Omer. Admiral Mohamed Omar Osman, ONLF Chairman, led the ONLF delegation. This has brought about unprecedented peace in a region traumatized by war and state-sponsored terror for decades.

There is near universal consensus that the ONLF has fully adhered to the terms of the Declaration. Not a single violation by ONLF was recorded and verified. However, this has not saved ONLF leadership, rank and file, and its supporters from being at the receiving end of serious provocation, humiliation, and even harassment at the hands of the other party. The provocations especially came from senior members of the SRS government. ONLF’s right to operate as a registered and legal political party was unlawfully restricted and at times openly violated. Its members have been harassed and at least two members of its Central Committee were arrested without adequate legal process. Even the public display of ONLF insignias, which were vetted and approved by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), were prohibited by provincial and district officials on the orders of the Regional Government. Some reports even indicate that senior officers of the Liyu Police were ordered to remove ONLF flags. And at least on two occasions, this has led to a serious confrontation between local administrations and ONLF supporters.

And more recently, senior members of the SRS cabinet and the President himself have directly participated in what appeared to be a highly orchestrated campaign to provoke, discredit and malign the ONLF. This has culminated in the President himself accusing the ONLF of committing massacres and calling them to atone for their sins. This unfortunate and deeply corrosive confrontation with the ONLF constitutes a flagrant breach of the Joint Declaration and puts the fragile peace in the region in peril. Seasoned commentators who are familiar with and closely follow Ethiopian politics have expressed concern that Prime Minister Ahmed and his administration have neglected the implementation of the Asmara Joint Declaration. 

As if this was not enough to preoccupy the President and his team, a serious and potentially calamitous political and governance earthquake has shaken the fledgling regional administration. During the past two weeks the Somali Regional State (SRS) has been catapulted into a befuddled and in many ways bizarre political and governance spectacle. This began with the sudden firing and arrest of the Chief Protocol and security officer of the Presidency. This was followed by the dismissal and attempted arrest of the Head of the Security and Justice Bureau, a move challenged by senior members of the SRS’ Executive Council. Questions were raised regarding the legality and procedural efficacy of the President’s decision. Initial statements dispatched to the media seemed to allege an attempted palace coup. But this allegation has quickly fizzled out as it had no basis in reality.

Then came the saga of the top leadership of the SRS being summoned to Addis Ababa first for a Prosperity Party (PP) meeting, and second, a meeting with the Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, to discuss and sort out the messy state of affairs in the Somali Region. Everything turned out to be highly contested and at times even rambunctious. Who should participate in the meetings and who should not? Who has the authority to remove a senior member of the SRS’s Executive Council and Prosperity Party? Did the Prime Minister intervene in the internal affairs of the SRS as reportedly alleged by President Mustafa or didn’t he?

The air inside the PP meeting halls was heavy with confusion, resentment, anger, and mistrust. At one point the Prime Minister reportedly got visibly upset at the suggestion that he and/or his government was illegally intervening in the governance of the SRS. On his part, President Mustafa was infuriated when he saw the former head of the Security and Justice Bureau that he just dismissed present and participating in the meetings. Some early reports indicated that he was so smitten with rage that he stormed out of the meeting. However, this turned out to be not more than a rumor peddled and exploited in equal measure by both the supporters and opponents of the President. President Mustafa sat through all the meetings. The meetings in Addis Ababa, however, turned out to be a source of disappointment and frustration for the President.

All these unfortunate and extremely embarrassing events that have engulfed the SRS and its leadership could have been avoided had there been sound and solid preparations for the timely and effective implementation of the Asmara Joint-Declaration together with a huge capacity injection to improve the administrative and governance capabilities of the regional government.

The following suggestions could be considered to reduce and eventually eliminate the root causes of some of the deep-seated and recurring political, legal, and governance challenges afflicting the SRS.

1)    The Federal Government to facilitate the formation and effective operationalization of the “Joint Committee” mentioned in the Asmara Joint Declaration between Ethiopia and ONLF.

2)    The SRS to closely coordinate with the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) regarding the legality of registered political parties, their insignias, and their activities.

3)    The SRS in collaboration with the Federal Government to ensure that incidences of corruption and abuse of power are curtailed.

4)    The Federal Government and SRS to ensure that the Somali Region receives its fair share of wealth generated from the oil and gas in the Ogaden basin. This is a right and an investment in peace and sustainable development for SRS and Ethiopia as a whole.

Lasting peace in the restive and gas-rich Ogaden Region may turn out to be more strategic and more economically profitable than the peace with Eritrea for which Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. 

The Ogaden Question has arguably been Ethiopia’s biggest challenge and has proved a tough nut to crack. From Menelik to Meles, every Ethiopian leader found a messy quagmire in the vast plains of the Ogaden. PM Abiy Ahmed may have been overwhelmed by the myriad conflicts that have erupted elsewhere in the country. But it would be sad, indeed tragic, if the invaluable opportunities provided by the Asmara Joint Declaration are missed or scuttled.

Herein lies an historic opportunity for PM Ahmed and his government to find a just and durable solution to a perennial conundrum. If successful PM Ahmed would forever be remembered for ridding Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa of centuries old affliction and the myriad ruinous legacies it has routinely spawned for decades.

Hassan Keynan is a former Professor at the Somali National University and a senior retired UN official who worked in Africa, Asia and Europe