Mutually Assured Delusion (MAD): A Cynical Ploy Employed by the Somali Political Elite

Hassan Keynan

For nearly thirty years, Somalia has existed in a suspended dystopian space outside the state-based system that defines and governs existing global order, earning it the notorious but well-deserved reputation of being the first and most enduring failed state. The reasons for this calamitous state of affairs are multiple, complex, and immensely variegated. However, none has probably been more potent and more consequential than what can be described as Mutually Assured Delusion (MAD). Simply stated, MAD refers to a deliberate and inherently duplicitous strategy to base all political negotiations and power-sharing formulas on clan affiliation and at the same time vehemently deny and denounce even the mere mentioning of clan identity in national politics. Everyone does it. Everyone knows it.  Yet all deny its existence and efficacy. Hence the phrase Mutually Assured Delusion (MAD).

MAD is madness in the form of a cynical strategy invented and effectively deployed by the Somali political elite to confuse and mislead both Somalis and foreigners alike about the truth of what has being going on in Somalia. All previous Somali governments had used it. MAD had been elevated to a bizarre spectacle during the military regime when effigies of the monster clan were burned or buried in well-choreographed public events. However, it has reached its ugliest summit in post-1991 Somalia, especially following the catastrophic Arta Conference in 2000 and the adoption of the notorious 4.5 formula as an official mechanism for power sharing among Somali clan families. Under Farmaajo and Khaire, MAD has evolved into a lethal national affliction. Detailed, open, honest and rational discussion and objective analysis of sensitive intra- and inter-clan rivalries, conflicts, and grievances is discouraged even suppressed, preferring a bizarre hush-hush approach that can be described as mutually assured national exercise in self-delusion.

Many, perhaps most, of the greatest and gravest challenges that have blighted Somalia from the 1990s to this very moment can be primarily attributed to this insidious and inherently malign element in post-1991 Somali politics. In fact, the MAD arguably constitutes the principal reason decades of massive involvement and colossal investment by the international community have not yet led to genuine national reconciliation and inclusive governance framework in Somalia or demonstrable improvements in the state of peace and security in the country. Yet, this core and heavily consequential factor has rarely received the attention, serious and robust analysis, and optimum consideration and care commensurate with its weight and impact. There has instead been a tendency to ensure that the issue remains barely acknowledged, deliberately avoided, expediently glossed over, conveniently ignored, or simply swept under the carpet.

 Foreigners have been equally active and complicit in this elaborate deception, although their reasons and motivations have not always been identical with those of their Somali counter parts. The international community has been reluctant to say much about MAD for two main reasons.  The first is to show solidarity with the duplicitous stance adopted by the powerful Mogadishu-based political and business elite. The second is that the dominant regional and international actors have found this murky and messy state of affairs exceptionally useful and expedient. The result has been the proliferation and perpetuation of half-truths, ridiculous oversimplifications and omissions, deliberate distortions, and outright falsehoods about the tumultuous events unfolding in Somalia for the past three decades. This sinister scheme has made informed and accurate understanding of the crisis in Somalia immensely difficult, and, more importantly, undermined and at times torpedoed efforts aimed at restoring lasting peace and political stability in the country.

keynanhassan@yahoo.com